Drought conditions in the eastern and southern half of Licking County are so severe that some springs have dried up, and farmers are hauling water to livestock. Some have even started feeding their animals hay meant for winter feeding.
“When you get outside Licking County, it’s even worse to the south and east,” said Dean Kreager, educator for agriculture and natural resources at the Ohio State University Agricultural Extension Service Licking County office in Newark.
He had just been on a call on Monday morning with the staff of the U.S. Drought Monitor, who told OSU Extension agents across Ohio that current conditions are among the worst in a couple of decades – “maybe worse than the drought of 1988. The droughts of 2012 and 1988 were among the worst” in the recent past.
Kreager said the outlook is not good. The next Drought Monitor report is due out Thursday, and he said that, without rain, more of Licking County likely will be experiencing “moderate” drought conditions; some likely will be in a state of “severe” drought; and some could even be in the red zone of “extreme” drought.
For farmers such as Sam Slater, whose family has tilled land in southern Licking County for five generations, the immediate future could be challenging.
“We put all of this out as a gamble and hope mother nature is good to us,” said Slater, 28, whose ancestors started farming along Canal Road near Hebron in the late 1800s. “Sometimes it makes you want to pull your hair out.”
His family farms about 3,500 acres in corn and soybeans. Some of that land is along the north side of I-70 between Rts. 37 and 79, and some is to the north and west of there at Outville.
The rainfall difference across even a few miles can be stark. Slater said rainfall to date near Outville has been about 5 inches more than on the family’s southern fields.
In southern Union Township, where the Slater family’s homes and original farm are located, 1.8 inches of rain fell in July, compared to 3.14 inches a few miles north in Granville Township – and compared to 5.9 inches last July in southern Union Township. That’s according to the OSU Extension service rainfall monitoring network.
Under current conditions, Slater expects their crop yields to be close to average or a little below, in part because they received above-average rainfall in May. But he’s concerned for his farm friends to the east, south and southwest – especially in Pickaway County, south of Columbus, where extreme drought conditions and sandy soil — which doesn’t hold moisture well — mean a significant decline in yields.
In that context, he said, “we have a long way to go to be complaining,” but added that because his family raises some hay, he knows that farmers raising livestock are facing a big challenge.
In a typical year, the Slaters would cut and bale hay three times. This year, the Slaters have cut only once, and a second cutting will be much lower in quality because all of the nutritious clover withered and died back.
Kreager said the extension service is compiling resources for farmers on its website at https://kx.osu.edu/page/early-drought-response.
Licking County is home to 1,532 farms, according to the U.S. Census of Agriculture, and they cover 58% of the county — and about 207,389 of the county’s 436,800 acres are used for growing crops or for pasture for animals.
Aaron Wilson, state climatologist for Ohio, and an atmospheric scientist at The Ohio State University, said conditions were pretty good in May, but parts of the state started drying out in June. Then came a heat wave in June that ramped up in July to bake the land.
Licking County should not expect rain anytime soon.
“It was very dry across Ohio last week,” Wilson said, “but temperatures are ratcheting up now – low to upper 90s. We may catch a shower or two, but that’s not going to be widespread. It will continue to worsen. After Labor Day, there will be cooler temps that will ease the stress of dry conditions.”
The National Weather Service forecast for Licking County calls for higher than normal temperatures this week, with highs in the 90s through Friday – and the combination of heat and humidity will result in a “feels like” heat index of around 100 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The forecast indicates a 20% chance of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday, and a 40% chance on Thursday and Friday, with a 50% chance on Friday night. The highs will drop back into the 80s for Saturday and Sunday.
It doesn’t help, Wilson said, that central Ohio is heading into a typically dry time of year. The months of September and November often see less rain than the rest of the year.
“The remnants of a good tropical storm coming up through here would really help,” Kreager said.
Wilson agreed that a tropical system could bring much-needed rain, but said “it’s a double-edged sword. If it’s too much, it won’t help soil,” because it will run off rather than soak in.
He also said that what Ohio is experiencing now is the effects of a changing climate.
“If you look at how things have changed,” Wilson said, “annual precipitation is increasing, but that’s increasing in winter and spring, but we’re seeing less in summer. There is a change in intensity, and a lot of our rain is falling in a handful of days.”
Kreager said Ohio’s drought conditions are not likely to have much impact on grocery prices but could result in a reduction in the amount of locally grown produce.
“At the farmer’s markets, we’re probably going to see some shortages of things,” he said. “But the farmers in this part of the state – the southeast part of Ohio and some of southwest Ohio, and into West Virginia – it’s going to be hard on people. Corn and soybean prices are already low. So with lower yields and lower prices, it’s going to be tough.”
Alan Miller and Jack Shuler write for TheReportingProject.org, the nonprofit news organization of Denison University’s Journalism program, which is supported by generous donations from readers. Sign up for The Reporting Project newsletter here.